The Swing States to decide the U.S. Federal election

[Walter Hale 4]

UPDATE... (as at 23 September)

Harris shows some gains and economic views brighten a bit — CBS News poll...

The 2024 presidential race clearly remains a contest either Donald Trump or Kamala Harris can win, CBS News' latest polling finds.

But with interest rates and gas prices coming down, the number of voters saying the economy is good has ticked up. That, along with a debate voters say was net positive for her, has helped Harris a bit.

The vice president has now moved to the slightest of edges across the battleground states (it was 50-50 last month), and she is now up 4 points nationally over Donald Trump.

Harris does better with voters who have a positive view of the national economy and of their own personal financial situation.

And she wins voters who say the economy is at least getting better, if not good right now. She wins voters who specifically say gas prices around them are going down.


The challenge that remains for her, though, is that despite the improvement, many voters still don't think things are good. And the ones that don't are voting for Trump.

But in all, Harris has narrowed her deficit with Trump among those who call the economy a major factor.


https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-harris-poll-debate-economy-09-22-2024/

[Walter Hale 4]

meanwhile early voting on some US states, has "Kicked off" ...

Election Day is less than 50 days away, but early voting has already kicked off.

Virginia, Minnesota and South Dakota were the first states to start early voting on Sept. 20. In Virginia, voters can line up at the polls. In Minnesota and South Dakota, voters can drop off their absentee ballots in person instead of mailing them.

States from California to Nebraska to Vermont – and several in between – begin voting in September and October, before much of the rest of the country.


https://www.usnews.com/news/elections/articles/2024-09-23/early-voting-kicks-off-in-2024-election-what-to-know

[Walter Hale 4]

Let's now look in on Michigan, one of the six key states that will decide the 2024 election and what their issues of concern are-

Survey shows Detroiters’ top priorities for city officials going into election


Crime and safety tops the list of priority issues that Detroit residents want to see city officials address going into the November 2024 election, according to a survey conducted by the University of Michigan in partnership with Outlier Media.

Thirty-nine percent of Detroiters said crime and safety are among the two most important issues they want the city of Detroit to address. The survey—fielded in April by U-M’s Detroit Metro Area Communities Study—asked open-ended questions, so people could answer in their own words. Other top priorities included:

Road repairs (17%)
Neighborhood maintenance (16%)
Structural blight (15%)
Housing affordability (15%)

People who highlighted crime and safety referenced the need for “lower crime rate,” “safer community to live and explore,” and “safe parks for the kids.” Related to crime and safety, another 4% of Detroiters said improving the quality of policing should be a top priority for local elected officials. Comments on policing included the need for more police visibility in neighborhoods and the need for police reform and de-escalation training.

“Safety is clearly a priority for Detroiters, and they’re thinking about it in a variety of ways,” said Mara Ostfeld, faculty lead for DMACS and co-author of a new brief on the survey findings. “While there is a lot of attention on the presidential election and other national races, what’s happening in someone’s community tends to be a stronger motivator to vote. Voters want to see policies that shape their day-to-day experiences.”

DMACS has released a series of briefs supported by U-M’s Poverty Solutions that explore topics relevant to the 2024 election, including Detroiters’ intentions to vote, the top issues Detroiters would like to see federal elected officials address, and views on legal immigration held by residents in four Michigan metro areas.

Analysis of survey responses from a representative sample of 1,100 Detroit residents found Black Detroiters (43%) were more likely to list crime and safety as a top priority for city government than white (26%) or Latino (21%) Detroiters. Latino Detroiters were more likely to list road repairs as a top priority for the city (33%) than Black Detroiters (18%) and white Detroiters (6%). Among white Detroiters, transportation, schools and taxes were more likely to be listed as top priorities for city government than among Black and Latino Detroiters.

“There were limited differences in priorities for local government between income groups, with all income groups citing concerns about crime and safety,” said Yucheng Fan, data manager for DMACS and co-author of the brief on priorities for city government. “Housing affordability was more likely to be listed as a top priority for the city government among households with lower incomes. Higher-income households were more concerned about taxes.”

Priorities differed for residents of different parts of the city. Concerns about crime were most pronounced in City Council District 1 in northwest Detroit, where the city is supporting two community-led violence intervention efforts through the ShotStoppers program.

In City Council District 7 on the west side of Detroit, neighborhood maintenance was most frequently mentioned as a top priority for the city to address.

Road repairs topped the list of priorities for residents in City Council District 1 in northwest Detroit, City Council District 4 in east Detroit; and City Council District 6 in southwest Detroit. Housing affordability was listed as a top priority in City Council District 3 in east Detroit and City Council District 5, which includes much of downtown Detroit.


Published On:
September 24, 2024

https://news.umich.edu/survey-shows-detroiters-top-priorities-for-city-officials-going-into-election/

[Walter Hale 4]

Road repairs (17%)
Neighborhood maintenance (16%)
Structural blight (15%)
Housing affordability (15%)


look at that !

There's no difference between Michigans and half-a-world away adelaidians, AU , in particular on the structual damage to our roads are quite dire too, because of too many Trucks and vehicles on our roads, and ultimately very bad for the pollution.

Same with Housing affordability. There's a mad rush here and has been on-going for two years to get thousands build, here and in other AU States. It's going to take years as there's not enough builders and not enough materials distributed to australia.

[TCB-FAN]

Let's Go Trump ! He's good for the U.K., Good For Australia & New Zealand & Good for the U.S.A. !!!!

[BrianTCB]

You're delusional, TCB-FAN. As are all of our forum fas.cists.

[BrianTCB]

[Jaime1234]

The NEW YORK TIMES JUST DEALT A BIG BLOW THE VP

https://scri.siena.edu/2024/09/23/new-york-times-siena-sunbelt-polls/

[rickeap]

I'll be in Arizona, Nevada and Wisconsin (plus Illinois and Utah) over the next month...too bad I can't vote for the sane and decent candidate.

[BrianTCB]

And yet, our forum Trumpers support this. Sad. Deplorable, really.

[Walter Hale 4]

Let's look in on the state of Nevada, one of the 6 or 7 crucial swinging states...


Why Nevada is so close in 2024

The 2024 polls

Polls show an even closer race this year. Harris leads by about 1 point in 538's polling average of the state.* That's a little worse than her performance nationally, where she leads Trump by nearly 3 points, but it's an improvement over Biden, who was trailing Trump in the state.

The demographics

Nearly three-fourths of Nevada's population of 3.1 million lives in the Las Vegas metropolitan area in the state's southern tip, giving the city a dominant place in the electoral politics of the Silver State. Beyond that, the Reno metropolitan area on the state's western bend clocks in with nearly half a million people, while most of the rest of the state is an extremely rural desert.

A little over 28 percent of the state's total population is Hispanic or Latino, making it the largest minority group in the state. Indeed, the state is home to the first Latina senator, Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto, and targeting Latinos in the Las Vegas area has been an important strategy for both parties. A report from the University of Southern California's Center for Inclusive Democracy found that while only about half of Latino voters across the country turned out in 2020 compared to about two-thirds of the general population, they still made up 15 percent of all voters in Nevada that year. And, as we see in polls across the country, Republicans seem to be making gains with these voters; in an average of polls conducted over the last month, Nevada Latino voters said they would vote for Harris over Trump by a 21-point margin (58 percent to 37 percent)**, a slight drop from the 26-point margin Biden had over Trump among the demographic in 2020, but about on par with national polling among Latino voters.

The state is also growing and diversifying rapidly. Its population increased 15 percent between 2010 and 2020, driven by growth among minority groups as the white population shrank, according to the Center for Inclusive Democracy report. That included around 40 percent growth in both Asian and Black populations in the state. Overall, one-third of Nevada voters in 2020 were nonwhite — a number that could increase this year if those demographic trends have continued.

The state also has a slightly lower percentage of adults with at least a bachelor's degree — 29 percent — compared to 36 percent nationwide. The divide between voters with or without college degrees has been one of the most important political divides of the past few elections, and voters without college degrees have become another battleground demographic group of sorts. Since his first presidential run, Trump has dominated among white voters without college degrees, while college graduates have migrated solidly into the Democratic Party. And while Black and Latino voters still overwhelmingly cast their ballots for Democrats in recent elections, those without college degrees have been trending toward the Republican Party like their white counterparts have been.

All of that means that the state abounds with key demographic groups for each party, which helps explain why the elections there have been so close.
The issues

To a unique degree, Nevada's economy depends on the hospitality industry. It was among the states most impacted by the recession during the COVID-19 pandemic, and the pandemic's economic impacts were particularly lasting there.

Unsurprisingly, the top issue for Nevada voters going into the election is the economy, which 39 percent of likely voters named as the most important issue facing their state in an Emerson College/The Hill poll of swing states from September. But that's actually a bit less than the share of voters nationally (43 percent) who said the same in a similar poll from Emerson College in September. In fact, with the exception of Arizona, Nevada voters were the least likely of all swing-state voters to name the economy as their top issue. Instead, many appear to be focused on a related issue that has been particularly troubling in the state: housing.

Housing affordability was the second most important issue to Nevada voters, with 16 percent naming it as their top issue, the highest of any state in the Emerson swing-state surveys. Nevada's surge of new residents, concentrated in the Las Vegas area, has put pressure on a housing market struggling to keep up with demand. Many new residents are moving in from California, which has a much higher cost of living, making Nevada a bargain for them but helping push prices out of reach for existing residents. According to Zillow, the Home Value Index in Nevada has grown 34 percent since the start of the Biden presidency, slightly faster than the rate of increase nationwide. The median rental price in Nevada is $2,075, which is $25 less than the national median but represents a $75 increase since September 2023. And Harris may have an advantage on the issue: According to a September Bloomberg/Morning Consult survey, Nevadans trust Harris over Trump on the issue of housing by a 10-point margin (49 percent to 39 percent of registered voters).

On the other hand, Trump appears to have an advantage on the economy in the state (as he does nationally). Fifty-three percent of registered voters in Nevada trust him more than Harris on the issue, according to an August CNN/SSRS poll. According to an earlier Emerson College/The Hill poll of the state, 71 percent of likely voters also support Trump's proposal (that's also been adopted by Harris) to eliminate taxes on tips, perhaps because so many Nevadans work in industries where they receive tips in addition to wages. Both candidates announced their support for the policy at rallies in Las Vegas.

Beyond the economy, immigration is also a big issue for Nevadans, with 8 percent naming it as the most important issue facing their state in the Emerson College/The Hill September poll. A look at the demographic breakdown also shows that the issue is more complicated than topline numbers might indicate. Latinos care more about the economy (44 percent) and housing affordability (16 percent) than immigration (5 percent). White Nevadans were more likely to say immigration was their top issue (9 percent), but it still came in behind the economy (38 percent), housing affordability (15 percent) and threats to democracy (11 percent).
The downballot races

Nevada is also electing a U.S. senator this year. But while Cortez Masto's reelection was close in 2022, her fellow Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen is polling well ahead of her Republican challenger this year, Afghanistan war veteran Sam Brown. State voters will also be deciding whether to adopt a new voting system that would allow top-five, all-party primaries and ranked-choice voting in general elections, similar to a system currently in place in Alaska.
PHOTO: 538's 2024 U.S. Senate polling average in Nevada showing Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen with a 9.9 point lead over Republican Sam Brown.


Another ballot measure will give Nevada voters the chance to decide whether to codify the right to abortion before fetal viability in the state constitution. (Abortion is currently protected in Nevada by state law.) While abortion is not the most important topic for voters in Nevada, the state is among the most liberal in the nation when it comes to wanting to ensure access. A full 80 percent of Nevada adults oppose criminalizing abortion before fetal viability, according to a survey from the University of Maryland Program for Public Consultation earlier this summer. And 64 percent would favor a federal law ensuring abortion access. Nevada is also the most supportive swing state when it comes to access to birth control: 90 percent of Nevada voters support the federal government continuing to require health insurance plans to cover long-term birth control, like IUDs. That's more than any other swing state polled and the U.S. as a whole.

Some activists have been hoping that ballot measures like this might help Democrats at the top of the ticket, either by encouraging turnout among sympathetic demographic groups or keeping the issue of abortion (on which Democrats have a big lead) in the news. But the evidence for abortion-related ballot measures juicing turnout is fairly mixed.
Footnotes

*All numbers in this article are as of Sept. 27 at 1:30 p.m. Eastern.

**Based on polls of likely and registered voters only (if a poll included results among both populations, we used likely voters). If a poll included both a head-to-head matchup between Harris and Trump and a version including third parties, we used the head-to-head version. Crosstabs among groups defined by pollsters as "Latino" and "Hispanic" are both included. Finally, if a polling organization (defined as a partnership between a pollster and sponsor, or a pollster alone if their work was not sponsored by an outside group) had more than one survey in the relevant time frame, only the most recent version was included.

All polls conducted and released between Aug. 27 and Sept. 27 at 1:30 p.m. Eastern are included.


By Monica Potts, Jennifer Vilcarino, and Mary Radcliffe via five thirty eight logo
September 28, 2024, 3:47 AM

Full article here for you:
https://abcnews.go.com/538/nevada-close-2024/story?id=114284320

[Jaime1234]

According to THE NUMBERS, only 180,000 fascists saw The Apprentice this past weekend. A bomb if I ever heard about one. Five fascists per showing.- With a budget of $16m, without the huge ads, it will have to make $50m worldwide to not lose any money. That'll teach them...

https://www.hollywoodintoto.com/anti-trump-apprentice-box-office-bomb/

https://www.the-numbers.com/weekend-box-office-chart

[Walter Hale 4]

OK let's look in on Wisconsin, another swing state...

Trump-Harris Polls: Latest Surveys Show Trump With Slight Edge -

Vice President Kamala Harris narrowly leads former President Donald Trump in Wisconsin, according to polling averages, while the latest surveys suggest Trump has narrowed the margins in the crucial swing state, less than four weeks before Election Day.

Harris leads Trump by a narrow 0.6 points in the state, according to Five Thirty Eight’s polling average, while a Friday Wall Street Journal poll showed Trump leading by two points, 48% to 46%, an Emerson College/The Hill survey released Thursday found Trump and Harris tied at 49% in Wisconsin, and a Quinnipiac poll out Wednesday showed Trump up by two points, 48% to 46%.

A Marquette Law School poll released Oct. 2 found Harris up six points over Trump in the state and that enthusiasm for voting has ticked up sharply, with 67% of respondents saying they are “very” enthusiastic, compared to 46% who said so in June; enthusiasm among Wisconsin Democrats is slightly higher, with 71% saying they are very enthusiastic and 67% of Republicans saying they’re very enthusiastic.

Voter turnout in Wisconsin could be high in November as there are several competitive U.S. House races in the state on the ballot and Republicans are in a tight contest to maintain majority control of the state Assembly, Anthony Chergosky, an assistant professor of political science at University of Wisconsin-La Crosse told WUWM public radio in Milwaukee.

Waning support for Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin in the Wisconsin Senate race is also seen as a warning sign for Democrats as Cook Political Report moved the state from lean Democrat to a toss-up last week after finding her lead over Republican Eric Hovde has shrunk from seven points to two since August, though a Marquette Law School poll, also released last week, still found her with a seven point advantage.

Biden won Wisconsin by less than one point in 2020, flipping the state after Trump beat Hillary Clinton there in 2016; former President Barack Obama won the state by decisive margins in both 2008 and in 2012.
Big Number

2.4. That’s how many points Harris leads Trump by nationally, according to Five Thirty Eight’s polling average.
Tangent

Republicans control both the State assembly and Senate in Wisconsin, and the governor’s office is held by Democrat Tony Evers.


Key Background

The race between Harris and Trump is a virtual tie, according to surveys that show Trump has closed the polling gap after Harris led him in most surveys taken in the weeks after she replaced Biden at the top of the ticket in July. Wisconsin is among seven swing states likely to determine the winner of the 2024 election, in addition to Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina and Georgia. Winning the three “blue wall” states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin is widely considered to be Harris’ clearest path to 270 electoral votes, assuming she also takes all of the other states Biden won in 2020. Polls in the other six swing states show mixed results in the race: Trump is ahead in North Carolina, Georgia and Arizona, while Harris leads in Nevada, Michigan and Pennsylvania.



By Sara DORN
Forbes, online

[Walter Hale 4]

Just found this ABC News vid but it was made in july. Nothing recent to add here.

Wisconsin voters speak to ABC News about the 2024 issues they care about most...

Inflation, border, health care and democracy were among their top concerns.

By Alexandra Hutzler
July 17, 2024, 1:43 AM

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wisconsin-voters-speak-abc-news-2024-issues-matter/story?id=111986208

[BrianTCB]

Just found this ABC News vid but it was made in july. Nothing recent to add here.

Wisconsin voters speak to ABC News about the 2024 issues they care about most...

Inflation, border, health care and democracy were among their top concerns.

By Alexandra Hutzler
July 17, 2024, 1:43 AM

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wisconsin-voters-speak-abc-news-2024-issues-matter/story?id=111986208

Then why are you posting anyway if nothing has changed?

[Walter Hale 4]

Just found this ABC News vid but it was made in july. Nothing recent to add here.

Wisconsin voters speak to ABC News about the 2024 issues they care about most...

Inflation, border, health care and democracy were among their top concerns.

By Alexandra Hutzler
July 17, 2024, 1:43 AM

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wisconsin-voters-speak-abc-news-2024-issues-matter/story?id=111986208

Then why are you posting anyway if nothing has changed?

to follow up on what the issues relevant to the community of Wisconsin, same as i posted on residents in the other swinging states, simple as that, my friend

[Walter Hale 4]

Is Harris or Trump leading with early voters in swing states? Poll finds ‘sea change’

Former President Donald Trump is narrowly leading Vice President Kamala Harris with early voters in battleground states, new polling reveals. In the latest Harvard CAPS/Harris poll, 48% of early voters in battleground states said they voted for Trump, while 47% said they voted for Harris. Five percent said they chose someone else or haven’t yet voted. “We’re seeing in the battleground states basically now equal distribution of the mail-in votes by party,” Mark Penn, the chairman of The Harris Poll, said in an interview with The Hill. “That’s a sea change.”

By comparison, in the 2020 election, around 60% of Democrats and 32% of Republicans voted by mail nationwide, according to a study done by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

“This will be a huge evening out here for Republicans,” Penn said, adding that Trump’s presence in some swing states — including his large rallies — has paid off. The election is likely to come down a handful of battleground states — including Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin — which polls show Harris and Trump are neck-and-neck in. Harris, on the other hand, outpaced Trump by a significantly larger margin among early voters nationwide, with 51.4% saying they cast their ballots for Harris, and 42.6% saying they chose Trump. Six percent said they chose another candidate or have not yet voted. The poll, conducted between Oct. 11 and 13, sampled 3,145 registered voters and has a margin of error of 1.8 percentage points.

Read more at: https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/national/article293999689.html#storylink=cpy

[BrianTCB]

Just found this ABC News vid but it was made in july. Nothing recent to add here.

Wisconsin voters speak to ABC News about the 2024 issues they care about most...

Inflation, border, health care and democracy were among their top concerns.

By Alexandra Hutzler
July 17, 2024, 1:43 AM

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wisconsin-voters-speak-abc-news-2024-issues-matter/story?id=111986208

Then why are you posting anyway if nothing has changed?

to follow up on what the issues relevant to the community of Wisconsin, same as i posted on residents in the other swinging states, simple as that, my friend

Nobody cares about the flyovers.

[Walter Hale 4]

another one here by BBC online, a look at swing state voters: 'You have a big say on what happens in the entire world'

The 2024 presidential race will likely come down to seven key battleground states: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, Michigan, Arizona and Nevada.

With tight margins expected, the people that live in these states are the most sought after by political campaigns.

Here's what swing state voters had to say about the at-times stressful role they play.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cqlvxvn42dvo